The next Big Thing - always - Rick Strahl's Web Log

The next Big Thing - always

December 26, 2003 @ 12:04 am

Microsoft is already on to the next big thing while we're lagging behind. For one that attended PDC this year and was super excited to see what technologies are coming down the pike, it's also extrodinarily frustrating to not be able to take advantage of some of this technology.

I can't tell you how many times I've been looking up in my development day and think to myself “Damn it sure would be nice to take advantage of this new feature today“. Generics, all the high level changes in ASP.Net, the improvements in the designers and the VS shell will make life considerably easier for many common tasks. There are plenty of fits, plenty of places this could be applied but yet we as developers are stuck on existing technologies, while the eternal techno carrot is dangled in front of our face.

The technology that was introduced at PDC varies from stuff that will be available in the relative near term (within a year - Whidbey/.Net 2.0) and stuff that is probably 2 years at minimum (Longhorn) out before you can even have release bits probably another 2 before the platform is stable and really taking advantage of the new paradigm.

These days Microsoft is very open about where they are headed with their technology. The days when Microsoft was so closed lipped about new features in new products are starting to come to an end with many of the MS developers posting comments on what they are doing in their BLogs.

Michael Earls has very well expressed this point in his Web log a few days back.

This has both positive and negative effects. On the upside the average developer gets a chance to get a pretty good idea at what's coming down the line. This helps getting a feeling for direction and possibly preparing for the changes, big and small as they come. And there's open discussion of this technology with at least some sort of feedback possible for anybody who's interested.

But on the downside, once again we get overwhelmed by - currently - useless information. Some of this technology is a long ways off and frankly for most developers a waste of time. Yes, it's interesting and we can prepare, but we're looking at stuff that is not fully baked at this time. It will drastically change. A lot can and no doubt will happen in two years.

What's the best path here? Watch the new stuff come out on the horizon and jump on it, or wait 'til it's here and then make the move? I think the latter is by far the more efficient approach for the average developer. As developers if we spend time on learning non-existant technology we're wasting time on many things that will change or work differently. You're also looking at a lot of inferred information which mostly comes from other developers who are 'putting the pieces together' and writing up this information. All this accomplishes is that you end up with that sinking feeling of penis envy - it'll all be bigger and better later.

In the meantime, your workday looms and you need to get things done.

And until you have at least something in your hands that you can play with (consider it a toy until you have release bits!) it's pretty hard to see any benefit in people talking to you about something that you don't have.

Again, case in point look at all the hub-hub even about Whidbey which is probably close to a year away, and not even in beta.Theres a small alpha group plus people that attended PDC and just now people who will download the PDC bits through the MSDN subscription. If you look at the PDC/Alpha bits - the bits that were shipped at PDC were ancient and current Microsoft builds were close to a half year newer.

I personally think it's good MS is putting out this information, but I can personally attest to that sinking feeling of just getting overwhelmed again by too much new stuff coming down the line. And that feeling of wasting my time following some of this stuff. Hey, just in time as I'm getting comfortable with the current version of .Net, right?

At the same time we have the hype machine at full volume. People are writing volumnious articles about this stuff even in Alpha form, which no doubt will result in lots of obsolete code samples and papers once a beta and final release rolls around.

I'm making it a point to not write any articles on Whidbey any of this technology until the beta at least even though I've spent a fair amount of time playing with the Alpha stuff that directly concerns me most (ASP.Net). I suppose it's useful to hear about new features in general, but articles that go into detail using the new technology are not doing anybody any favors...

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re: The next Big Thing - always
by Michael Earls December 27, 2003 @ 4:37 am

Well put. It does seem overwhelming, and a "solution" does not seem to make itself known at present. On one hand, I'm afraid that Microsoft could pull the plug on employee blogging, thereby stopping the confusion. On the other hand, I'm not so sure that would be a bad thing (well, except that I would be the poster child for such a campaign and would not have a very bright career future).

re: The next Big Thing - always
by Rick Strahl December 27, 2003 @ 11:14 am

I think the issue is more one of frustration than anything else. We can't really fault Microsoft for being open. After all there's always the choice of NOT paying attention.

Unfortunately we live in times when anything new is autoamtically elevated to 'must-have' status so we often have that sick desire to keep up with something we can't have. So it's as much our own fault as MS's.

But sometimes I wish the time frames were shorter. In days past a beta was a big deal - today we are in a perpetual data and the changes in these betas are not just incremental but usually complete shifts of technologies. By the time these products finally ship in a box we're already expected to be proficient with them.

re: The next Big Thing - always
by Steven Black December 27, 2003 @ 2:23 pm

>> We live in times when anything new is autoamtically elevated to 'must-have' status...

Agreed. But by whom, why, and who's kidding whom?

This kind of reminds me of those unctuous fashion shows on TV, those from Paris and Milan, where women dressed like emissaries from Whoville strut down runways. Marvelous darling, next Spring looks to be the all about boa-feather hats and wraps. Right. But for the fashion press it's neat and easy to report and write about.

Meanwhile, banch at the ranch, the overwhelming majority of developers have long since had more software capability and tools than they possibly need, or can use. At some point the software industry press stopped being about creating value for developers and instead became more focused on re-transmitting boardroom bulletins.

re: The next Big Thing - always
by Rick Strahl December 27, 2003 @ 10:46 pm

C'mon Steve, you know that isn't so. Yes, we have more power in tools than most of us will ever need or use - at least not all of it. You can build a powerful app in FoxPro DOS too - and really that's maybe all that you need, right? You can but nobody does any more...

You can't deny that advances are made. Since we both know VFP I'll use that as an example that's just as relevant. Would you rather still be working with VFP 5.0? Or even 6.0 (which was probably the first true stable version?). It works, and has 95% of the functionality of VFP 8.0 you use today, but if you go back do you really feel comfortable? Would you not miss Intellisense, Exception handling, the XML support, dynamic code execution and a slew of other features, both in the language and in the IDE? Yes, sure you can by, but it's something that you miss.

Software tools and languages always have ways of becoming better and bigger over time. People ask tools to do more. Not everybody will use it, but nonetheless most people usually benefit. Until the platform gets pushed into corners where it can't work any more and then it's platform shift again. (Dos->Windows->COM/DNA->.Net->???)

Forwards movement has to start somewhere and the point in this discussion is more about when is it too early. In my opinion it's too early until at the very least a late beta is shipped (in today's marketplace) to be crowing about all that you can do with a new product. It's one thing to give a general preview here and there, but quite another to throw out alpha code that even when released was a half a year stale and obsolete...

As to the must have status elevation and by whom. Unfortunately, that would be most developers... If Microsoft put this stuff out and nobody picked it up or posted about it they wouldn't be doing it and keep alphas and betas private. For Microsoft this seems a win situation - free publicity and tons of people hammering on code with ideas and suggestions floating around. Many developers are happy too - they feel they're a part of the process -even if they are wasting time on an unfinished and buggy codebase and not doing productive work. But for a lot of people the process of figuring things out is part of the enjoyment of working with software too.

I'll have more in another entry...

The next big thing - Part II - Rick Strahl's Web Log
by Rick Strahl's Web Log September 27, 2006 @ 2:52 pm